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Coffee shops, horses with sticks on their heads and failure.

Happy 4th!
I read (and tweet) a lot. This week, 125,000+ of you told me which of the reads were the most interesting (and reminded me that most of my tweets are terrible) — here are the top ten:

1. It all starts with the coffee shops. [Link] [Tweet] (On a related note, you can tell a lot about a neighborhood based on the time that the local coffee shop closes. Early is usually bad.)

2. “To hear him speak can remind you of the smallness of your own dreams.” [Link] [Tweet] (It’s pretty cool to see smart people trying to tackle problems, like death, at this scale. It puts some of the “me too” tech companies we’ve all heard about to shame.)

3. “Because we don’t want 50 Silicon Valleys; we want 50 different variations of Silicon Valley” [Link] [Tweet]

4. “we believe that some of them will be exposed as nothing more than horses with sticks taped to their heads” [Link] [Tweet]

5. “After that, give yourself a break. The best you can do is maximize your child’s potential.” [Link] [Tweet] (As a relatively new father, I wish more people would say this sort of thing more openly.)

6. “You’re not a failure, you’re just failing.” [Link] [Tweet] (Fellow founders, read this — it’s worth it.)

7. “The biggest solar revolution will take place on rooftops.” [Link] [Tweet]

8. “Perhaps most importantly, though, lots of teens just don’t want to work anymore.” [Link] [Tweet]

9. SEC Approves Tweeting by Startups to Test Investor Interest [Link] [Tweet] (Wait, so investors look for investment opportunities on Twitter now?)

10. “There’s substantial evidence that the return on capital converges to 0 as the slope of tech progress approaches 1.” [Link] [Tweet]

Where you at?
Last week, I asked you for more speaking opportunities and managed to lock in events in Nebraska, South Carolina and Chile. This year’s starting to get booked up, hit reply and let me know if there’s something happening in your neck of the woods. Let’s get it on the calendar ASAP. (Have I mentioned how great you are?)

How can I make this newsletter better?
I know you’re super busy (thanks for reading this far), so how can I make this weekly letter more useful and interesting for you?

Have a great weekend! (And, remember, always point the bottle rocket at the other end of the neighborhood.)

-P

Understanding human behavior, LPs and the unrest in France.

Happy Friday.
I read (and tweet) a lot. This week, 125,000+ of you told me which of the reads were the most interesting (and reminded me that most of my tweets are terrible) — here are the top ten:

1. “Three simple rules will explain 99% of human behavior.” [Link] [Tweet]

2. “no great companies are born trying to become billion dollar companies.” [Link] [Tweet]

3. “I try my best to discourage them; I always emphasize the risks and downsides of angel investing.” [Link] [Tweet] (I’ve always wondered: given the incredible ratings/popularity of shows like Shark Tank, how long until they’re required to put “do not try this at home” disclaimers to the broadcasts?)

4. “I find that almost all startups look much worse beneath the surface than they first appear.” [Link] [Tweet]

5. “There is a huge opp for the smaller, more affordable, more family-friendly places to take up the cause of startups.” [Link] [Tweet] (Yes. Yes. Yes. Given that there are now 1,500+ self-identified incubators/accelerators listed on AngelList, I’d bet that there’s an opportunity for smart cities outside of SF/NYC to pull these post-accelerator / pre-A companies to their own city.)

6. “Opening is easier than closing.” [Link] [Tweet]

7. “There are institutional and structural barriers to innovation in Europe.” [Link] [Tweet] (The backlash against Uber and AirBnB in France this week is a sobering reminder that it can be tough to build companies in other countries and cultures.)

8. “We are drowning in folks.” [Link] [Tweet] (Filed under “Things I Should Say If I Ever Run For Office.”)

9. “How we believe others see us shapes who we are.” [Link] [Tweet]

10. “The people who manage that money are driven by very different thinking than your average Wall Street investor.” [Link] [Tweet] (If more founders understood the economics of venture funds, I’d bet their pitches would instantly improve. LPs are the “invisible hand” of the private market.)

Where you at?
I’m always looking for more speaking opportunities, hit reply and let me know if there’s something happening in your neck of the woods. (I spoke at AngelSummit in Madrid last week… beautiful city and incredibly smart people, despite my jet lag.)

Have a great weekend!

-P

I can’t even.

Happy Friday.
I read (and tweet) a lot. This week, nearly 125,000 of you told me which of the reads were the most interesting (and reminded me that most of my tweets are terrible) — here are the top ten:

1. “I can’t even. I am unable to even. I have lost my ability to even. I am so unable to even. Oh, my God. Oh, my God!” [Link] [Tweet]

2. “you can’t just become a successful angel investor overnight.” [Link] [Tweet]

3. “Then his application for a U.S. visa was rejected and he was kicked out the country. Lucky for him.” [Link] [Tweet]

4. “Roman engineers had to sleep under the bridges’ they built.” [Link] [Tweet]

5. “Yeah, so you really don’t want in this. Trust me.” [Link] [Tweet]

6. “For comparison, that’s enough money to send a man to the moon.” [Link] [Tweet]

7. “The concept of freelancers as slackers is completely over.” [Link] [Tweet]

8. “Focus on growth rate rather than absolute numbers.” [Link] [Tweet]

9. “So for now at least — it’s a roach motel.” [Link] [Tweet]

10. “The game used to be, obviously, to own as much real estate as you possibly can, everywhere.” [Link] [Tweet]

Madrid.
I’m speaking at AngelSummit on Monday and Tuesday, will you be around? (I’m always looking for more speaking opportunities, hit reply and let me know if there’s something happening in your neck of the woods.)

Have a great weekend!

-P

Venture capital is in the midst of an overwhelming buy-and-hold paralysis.

Happy Friday.
I read (and tweet) a lot. This week, 124,000+ of you told me which of the reads were the most interesting (and reminded me that most of my tweets are terrible) — here are the top ten:

1. “Venture capital is in the midst of an overwhelming buy-and-hold paralysis.” [Link] [Tweet]

2. $18 Billion. In Profit. In One Quarter. [Link] [Tweet]

3. “76% of all venture capital funding of seed accelerators go to graduates of just five accelerator programs.” [Link] [Tweet]

4. “As the investor you need to recognize who is taking the real risk here and treat them with commensurate RESPECT.” [Link] [Tweet]

5. “I believe, in the best businesses, founder time is worth $10K in equity value per hour.” [Link] [Tweet]

6. “I have learned that timing is probably one of the most undervalued factors for success in tech ventures.” [Link] [Tweet]

7. “Inexperienced VCs get caught in the pre-money vs. post-money trap.” [Link] [Tweet]

8. “I find that almost all startups look much worse beneath the surface than they first appear.” [Link] [Tweet]

9. “Building great companies is hard to do and it takes a really, really long time. Don’t rush.” [Link] [Tweet]

10. “Musk wasn’t enjoying the drama of the scene, finally was like, ‘PAUSE THE MOVIE QUICKLY PAUSE IT PAUSE IT.'” [Link] [Tweet]

Have a great weekend!

-P

“VC’s are paying 3-5x rev for co’s are worth 1x in the public markets

Happy Friday.

I read (and tweet) a lot. This week, 124,000 of you told me which of the reads were the most interesting (and reminded me that most of my tweets are terrible) — here are the top ten:

1. “Many VC’s are paying 3-5x revenues for companies that are worth 1x in the public markets.” [Link] [Tweet]

2, Companies that are (almost always) a bad idea. [Link] [Tweet]

3. “You can’t expect to just hop into a new industry with no expertise and get your ideal role at your ideal company.” [Link] [Tweet] (MBAs are people too. Sometimes.)

4. “Yes, we want banks to engage with us, but no, please don’t talk with us.” [Link] [Tweet] (Those damn millennials are at it again.)

5. “The early risk is why they get a cheaper price.” [Link] [Tweet]

6. “The themes that I see impacting enterprise software investing in 2015.” [Link] [Tweet]

7. “Let me not die while I am still alive.” [Link] [Tweet] (This is the most touching — and personal — thing I’ve read recently.)

8. “The A380 is basically a flying weather system, with its 261-foot wings throwing off hurricane-strength winds.” [Link] [Tweet] (Having flown on the A380 quite a bit, it’s my favorite commercial airplane. Still looking for an opportunity to hop on a 787… help?)

9. “The hardest leadership challenge is in the home.” [Link] [Tweet] (Yes.)

10. Life gives you potentials for freedom, achievement, love, all sorts of beautiful things, but none of us are “safe.” [Link] [Tweet]

11. Every Friday morning, I send out a brief email containing the top 10 reads that made me smarter this week. [Link] [Tweet] (OK, so this one’s an extra BUT it was the #1 engaged link this week. Share me with a friend?)

Come say hi.

I’m speaking at 36|86 (Nashville, TN) and Metabridge (Kelowna, BC) next week, say hello if you’re around. (Hit ‘reply’ if there are other events coming up that I should be attending.)

Doing anything fun this weekend?

If you’re in the DC Metro area, driving range? (I’m terrible.)

-P

I’m back. ?

It’s been a while, I’m sorry for the radio silence. I’M BACK.

As you might recall, Disruption Corporation (where you originally signed up for this email list) and 1776 merged back on April 16, 2015. Things got a bit hectic and I left you hanging, I’m sorry.

Now I’m back and I want to help make you even smarter. Every Friday morning, I’ll send you the top 10 things I’ve read over the past week. Here’s the cool part: the top 10 reads will be things that I find interesting but that my 120,000+ Twitter followers enjoyed the most.

Bottom line: if you stay on this list, you’ll be getting inside the head of an extremely active venture capitalist and the collective brainpower of 120,000+ other smart people.

If you DON’T want to receive this email each Friday morning, I completely understand.Unsubscribe here.

If you DO want to get smarter, sit back and relax. I’ll email you Friday morning.

You’re the best.

-P

On Valuing Imaginary Money

If you’re not deeply involved in venture capital, there are three important things to understand:

  1. The best way to measure the performance of a venture fund is its cash returns. The problem, however, is that cash returns can take years to appear if they appear at all.
  2. In order to track the performance of a venture fund before it matures, the vast majority of funds are required to estimate the current value of their portfolio on a quarterly basis.
  3. As a general rule of thumb, the value of a portfolio company is either marked-down to $0 if they’ve failed or marked-up to the value of their most recent fundraising. In between those two cases (failure vs. future funding), there’s an especially wide gray area.

That gray area can result in somewhat-sensational tweets. If you’re putting an estimated value to portfolios and releasing that information to the general public, there ought to be a responsibility to include the methods used to value the underlying portfolio. Otherwise, you risk ending up with sensational headlines that aren’t exactly a lie but aren’t exactly the truth.

The Intersection of Tech, Venture and Cities

Perhaps this is reassuring: you weren’t the only one who hadn’t heard of WhatsApp when Facebook bought it for $19 BILLION dollars. Or hadn’t used Beats when Apple bought it for $3b. Or Tumblr, when Yahoo bought it for $1b. These are household names spending billions to acquire relatively obscure ones, leaving many of us ordinary folks to ask: where did these young companies with multi-billion-dollar valuations come from, and how and where can I find the next one?Over the last four years, I have overseen investments in 600+ early stage tech startups in more than 35 countries. I have seen them emerge from urban and rural settings, men and women, teams and individuals, young and old, the college-educated and the streetwise. Disruptive ideas can emerge from virtually anywhere.

In fact, as technology quickens the trip from idea to product, and helps to connect founders with seed capital and talent, some are pronouncing the old business axiom of “location, location, location” – having been around for generations – all but dead. The question of where entrepreneurs and their dispersed teams and businesses are from, they say, is “tricky.”

This is nonsense.

What I have learned as both venture investor and serial founder is that while startups can be born anywhere, businesses are grown somewhere, and that somewhere is important.

In a recent report by Brookings, the geography of innovation is changing from spread-out and isolated to concentrated and connected. A growing number of people across the globe are living in cities, according to this report, from a majority in 2009 to an expected 70% by 2050. The fact that so much tech growth now is happening in cities reflects the evolution of the Internet. The rise of digital commerce, social networking and online media presents new opportunities for design, expanding tech communities to include writers, artists and other creative professionals who have always gravitated to cities.

We see evidence of this as Twitter and Zynga have migrated away from the sprawling corporate clusters of Silicon Valley and into San Francisco, proudly owning their brand’s roles within SoMa’s more urban environment. And we see burgeoning urban tech movements taking root in Las Vegas, Montreal, and here in Crystal City, Virginia, just across the Potomac River from the nation’s capital and its closest economic hub.

Here in Virginia, this trend is happening organically and not as a product of governmental intervention, public funding or grants. Choosing Crystal City as the headquarters of my company, Disruption Corporation (which produces private market research and manages Crystal Tech Fund for post-seed, high-growth tech companies), was a conscious selection of a combination of infrastructure, resources, and educated talent pool that make it more likely for companies to succeed.

Here in Crystal City, tech and creative workers in crucibles like TechShop (think: Square) are neighbors to defense titans Lockheed-Martin and Boeing. The mixed-use neighborhood itself has an international airport within walking distance and easy bike and metro access to DC, and sweeping views of the monuments. It has restaurants and retail, offices and open-air courtyards with WiFi. And it has a visionary, dominant owner, Vornado, the $30b REIT that is investing in its own back yard and the future of its business. All of these features are attracting the young creatives who seek out collaborative living, and whose quest for innovation and new efficiencies will no doubt shape our collective futures and economic landscape. The latest researchon this urban renaissance shows that areas with a faster growing tech sector tend to have faster growing non-tech employment as well.

Based on what I’ve learned in Silicon Valley and traveling the world in search of the most promising startups, my goal over the next year is to create the most desirable place for high-growth tech companies and their workers to live, work, play and grow. I expect over the next 5-10 years our work in Crystal City will become the model for how other cities integrate technology into their own ecosystems and economic lifeblood.

Yes, it is cheaper than ever for you to start a tech company and you can do it anywhere. Don’t forget, though, that it’s also easier for everyone else, including your future competition. Growing that startup into a real business increasingly requires that the founding team commit visibly, not just virtually, to its customers, shareholders, brand and the broader community. It can seem to reasonable people that the big private market exits come out of nowhere. But the real opportunity for us as investors and as a country, is to help build the ecosystem – the somewhere – that helps these young tech companies compete and win.

Event Summary: 500 Startups Premoney (June 2014)

I wasn’t able to attend 500 Startups’ Premoney conference in San Francisco last week (something about a 5 month old baby at home, I suppose) but I tried to follow along online from DC.Some raw notes & commentary below…

Summary The big questions that surfaced had to do with the existence of a tech bubble, the benefits of co-working spaces, and the Silicon Valley ecosystem. In addition to analysis of these issues, the speakers also explained their strategies for success; McClure spoke about crowdfunding and volume of accelerators, while others talked about market perceptions and statistics.

On Bubbles With regards to the possibility of a bubble, the speakers agreed that the answer was more complex than a yes or no. They said that the startup market is “bifurcating”, with seed investors putting money into new companies and big-name investors pouring capital into well established ones. Although this could be a sign of a future bubble, distinguishing it is made difficult by the increasing time companies are taking to go public. The overall trend is that mid-level VCs are decreasing while focus continues to center around the big players.1

On Coworking As for the issue of co-working, there is considerable debate. Altman, of Y Combinator is against the model, arguing that it can be distracting and that it can prevent a start-up from forming a unique identity. Furthermore, shared working spaces could potentially hinder growth: it would be logistically difficult to have hundreds of startups in the same place. Other accelerators, however, including 500 Startups, argue that co-working spaces are beneficial, allowing for collaboration, resources, and easy access to founders.

Location Silicon Valley is the center of the potential tech bubble and co-working spaces, but for as much controversy as these issues bring, the conference’s speakers all agreed that the Valley is still ripe for success. Altman wants to bring all of YC’s companies to the area for a three-month program to take advantage of the unparalleled ecosystem full of VCs, tech talent, and startup veterans.3 He estimates that two-thirds to three-fourths of the program participants remain in the Valley afterwards. Though this is the case, Altman said that he still looks outside of the Bay Area and even the U.S. for talent. Additionally, he said he will soon be releasing data about YC’s increasing investments in women-run companies. For 500 Startups, the focus is a bit different. McClure acknowledges that 500 Startups is considerably behind Y Combinator, but said that the gap is closing. He plans to take advantage of new regulations via fundraising its current $100M fund through “‘crowdfunding’ through ‘accredited’ investors.”

Three Types of Risk And What Investors Should Do About It

This shouldn’t come as a surprise but you simply can’t evaluate an early stage company the same way you might evaluate a late stage company. Yet, so many private market investors (mostly angels, in my experience) make this mistake every day.Regardless of company stage, there are three main types of risk to be considered for any investment opportunity:

  • Product Risk: “Can they build it and will it work?”
  • Market Risk: “How many people want it?”
  • Distribution Risk: “How big can it get?”

At the earliest stage of the company (e.g., a company’s first outside fundraise or a company raising money pre-product), an investor ought to spend 80% of their time determining product risk. The remaining 20% of time should be spent on understanding market and distribution risk.

At the next stage of the company (often called the bridge or Series A stage), 80% investor’s time should spent on understanding the market risk. The remaining time should be spent understanding product and distribution risk.

Beyond that, most companies have figured out the majority of product and market risk. The primary concern at this later stage tends to be around distribution risk.

I’ve invested in hundreds of companies over the past few years and this framework has served me well.