This post includes video, slides, and a full-text writeup. At 3,500+ words, you probably donāt want to be reading this on your phone.Over the past two years, Iāve been lucky enough to be involved with 500 Startups as weāve invested in 400+ companies in 20 countries. As weāve started to ramp up operations in India, Iāve spent quite a bit of time there in 2012 and was asked to speak at theĀ UnpluggdĀ conference a few weeks ago. I thought Iād write up my presentation for the benefit of people that were not at the conference.The Video (~45 minutes)
The Slides (44 slides)
The Writeup
When Ashish first asked me to speak at this event, he asked me to talk about things that Indian companies could learn from American or other international startups. So, the way Iām going to structure todayās talk is that Iāll first talk about the underlying things that are changing early stage startups. Then Iāll talk about how those things are behind the underlying changes in venture capital. Iāll tie that together to talk about how fundings are changing. And, finally, Iāll leave you with a couple of crisp things you can do as founders to raise money more successfully.
EARLY STAGE STARTUPS HAVE ALREADY CHANGED
First off, youāll have to pardon the clichĆ©, but early stage startups have already changed. The first underlying factor that drives that change is that initial startup costs continue to drop. Itās driven by the Cloud, driven by open source, driven by the online distribution platforms available to you. It no longer costs, for example, $1M, $2M or $5M dollars to start a new company like it did when founders started up ten or fifteen years ago. With that being said, though, the cost to scale a company is rising. So it is cheaper than ever to start but once you hit product market fit, the cost to scale is rising. Thatās usually driven by the fact that companies that achieve that product market fit will often kick their growth into high gear by ramping up their budgets. Separately, customer acquisition channels tend to become saturated which further increases costs at that stage of the game.
The second underlying trend is that as the web gets bigger the world is getting smaller. What that means, for example, is it that if you wanted to raise money from an American investor you might try to get their attention by showing up in their backyard and you were only really competing with a few other American companies for their money. The unfortunate reality is that there are more and more entrepreneurs coming in to the market, just take a look around you in the audience today. There are more and more entrepreneurs coming online in Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Sri Lanka, China and Russia.
If you take a moment to really think about that, what Iām suggesting is that while increasing internet penetration certainly gets you more potential users for your product but it also gives me more potential companies to invest in. So itās no longer good enough to be the best company in your neighborhood or your town or your city and frankly even your country. In fact, itās incredibly important to be the best company an investor has seen that week. To give you some context: on average, we do probably one new investment somewhere on the planet about every three days. Roughly speaking, we do about one hundred fifty-ish new investments per year.
The third underlying trend is that tech differentiation no longer matters or, in other words, tech differentiation is not as important as it used to be. For most tech startups, if not all tech startups, traction is the only intellectual property that matters anymore. A great example of this is Facebook: they have one billion monthly active users now ā thatās simply overwhelming. Thatās not to say that nobody will disrupt them, they might. But the point is that itās incredibly hard to do that. Itās much harder to beat that traction than it is to maybe, say, build a slightly better product.
The fourth underlying trend is that capital is increasingly commoditized. It certainly may not feel like this to many founders but the reality is that there is more money available to you than ever before. It doesnāt matter where youāre based. It doesnāt matter like what industry youāre in or what you do or how unique your thing is. The fact is that thereās more money available to you and itās rapidly increasing. For example, weāve got crowdfunding coming relatively soon. In Singapore, the NRF programs can multiply initial investments by up to five times. Then thereās Startup Chile in South America and, more recently, similar programs in St. Louis, Missouri that give startups up to $50K to relocate there.
The point is that none of these things existed a few years ago and that early stage money is increasingly becoming more available. Early stage money is becoming commoditized. In fact, I believe this decade will be remembered as the Rise of the Angels all over the world. But, perhaps more interestingly, I think** it will also be remembered as the Rise of the Entrepreneur and thatās because early stage money is increasingly following you, the founders**.
In fact, a subtle but very important thing to understand is that you donāt need to pitch investors. Itās our responsibility as investors to find you. Your job as the founder is to spend all of your time building your business. In doing that, you automatically make it easier for me to invest in you. Make no mistake about it, the venture capitalists in this room today (including me) want to invest in your company. And if we donāt, you should be asking yourself the hard question: is it because we werenāt able to connect the dots or because you really donāt have something we can invest in?
The fifth, and most profound, trend is that signals are available everywhere. In other words, transparency is everywhere. The best way I can make this point is to use the public markets as an example. For those of you that are new to venture capital, itās important to understand that this industry is just one asset class in the bigger picture. Other asset classes, for example, are stocks, commodities and derivatives.
Before I go any further, let me make a blunt assertion: early stage venture capital is probably one of the only remaining asset classes that has not seen much innovation within itself. Itās not that venture capitalists are bad people, itās just that we often donāt feel the pain enough to consider innovating within our own industry. And, as we all probably know from our personal lives, the sensation of pain tends to reduce the delta between cause and reaction. If I step on a nail, my reaction is immediate. If I eat Paula Deenās cooking every day, checking my cholesterol will likely be the last thing on my mind. (As an aside, Paulaās advice to ājust put some butter on itā may be the kind of advice that can apply to anything⦠including startups.)
Coming back to the point, the public markets have been using data in new and interesting ways ā and theyāve been doing it for years. Consider the fact that banks like UBS are paying satellite operators to take hourly photos of every Walmart parking lot in order to make better guesses about how many people are walking through the door. They use this data to make better decisions around buying and selling Walmart stock.
Another company named Genscape is known for flying helicopters over the oil tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma twice a week to determine how much oil is in the tanks. They do this so their customers can make better decisions about buying and selling oil on the commodity markets. And, Wall Street isnāt alone.
If youāve ever purchased home/auto insurance or taken a loan (especially for things like in-vitro fertilizaton), data was used to make better decisions about you. The point is that other industries are using data anytime it might reduce the risk. They do this because, generally speaking, the delta between when the transaction occurs and when they feel the pain/glory is very small. In other words, if I purchase a barrel of oil, Iāll often see the price change within a very short period of time.
When we used to write large initial checks to startups, it might take nearly two years (and sometimes more) before we feel the pain or the glory. If you consider all the underlying trends Iāve already explained, youāll recognize that venture capitalists have no choice but to start innovating now ā the changes in the startup world are forcing us to begin considering new ways to operate. When we write a small initial check to startups, weāll feel that pain/glory in a much shorter time. If weāre talking about internet startups in particular, that could be in as little as a few months. That may not feel like a big change, but itās an order of magnitude sooner than in the past.
One of the most important drivers of transparency has been AngelList. Theyāve fundamentally leveled the playing field between startups and investors. (As an aside, the common argument from international startups is that AngelList doesnāt really help them yet. I call bullshit on that. If youāre not doing well on AngelList, youāre probably not communicating clearly ā regardless of where youāre located.) It used to be the case that all deals would happen behind the scene but platforms like AngelList now allow you to follow investors, see who theyāre following, which startups theyāre interacting with and more. Thatās profound.
Consider also that most founders (and, investors these days) are on other platforms such as Quora, Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn. Not only are they on those platforms, but theyāre engaged with them.Thereās an incredible amount of signal within all that noise and the venture capital industry hasnāt traditionally looked to identify that signal. Thatās all beginning to change now ā firms like Google Ventures, Correlation Venture, Right Side Capital and many others are beginning to take a data-driven approach to early stage venture capital.
The point here is that the startup world is becoming increasingly transparent and thatās allowing founders to have easier access to investors. That transparency is allowing founders to make smarter decisions for their business and itās allowing investors to make smarter decisions about their investments.
EARLY STAGE VENTURE CAPITAL HAS CHANGED
Now that weāve covered all of those changes in the startup world, itās important to understand that venture capital has already begun to change as well. As I mentioned earlier, itās being forced to change because the startups are changing.
Let me first assert that the state of the art in venture capital is not very sophisticated at all. If you donāt agree with me, consider the number of interactions youāve had with an investor that included the phrases āI thinkā or āI feel.ā Venture capital has always been a little fuzzy, but thatās changing.
The first underlying change in venture capital is that there is an unbundling of advice, control and money. It used to be the case that the investor would write the check and the proceed to offer advice and take control via a Board seat. Today, theyāll often write you the first check without requiring a board seat ā they do this because they realize that Boards canāt help a startup in the early days. (Once the company is clearly gaining traction, Boards can be incredibly useful to help guide the company through the later stages.) They also do this because they recognize that they donāt really need a Board seat in order to control you anyways ā they know that later stage investors will look to them to re-invest in subsequent rounds and a smart founder will need to make sure they pay attention to the existing investors.
Separately, consider the number of investors today that boast about their mentor networks (including us at 500 Startups). Many of the smartest investors I know are beginning to realize that weāre not that useful to startups ā we need to see ourselves as APIs to venture capital and functional expertise.Weāre starting to realize that we donāt really add much value when you recognize that founders need help in the trenches. They need tactical help with data, design and distribution. We need to build mentor networks that can provide that.
The second underlying change in venture capital is that itās no longer just about capital, dealflow and judgement. Those things certainly are important but, today, accessĀ is the most important thing. After all, it doesnāt matter if an investor is excited about a particular company ā the real question is whether that particular founder will let the investor participate. In other words, you canāt be an asshole with money anymore. The paradox of investing is that while we all we want to invest in the best startups, the best startups *by definition* donāt need us ā they can create a market for their fundraising and be selective about the investors they want in the deal.
As an aside here, my theory on why most investors are perceived negatively is that the person that writes the founder a check is usually not the same person that raised money for the fund. They canāt (or wonāt) empathize with the founder. What founders and investors should understand is that our worlds arenāt so different. Startups sit between their customers and their investors. Venture capitalists sit between their customers (the startups) and their investors. In any case, the point is that *access* has become one of the most important things in venture capital.
The third underlying change is that transparency is finally hitting our side of the transactions as well. At 500 Startups, weāve openly published a checklist of the things we look for in startups. Other investors are blogging and tweeting actively. Itās easier than ever for founders to get to know investors from a distance now. What this means for founders is that you have fewer excuses when you pitch the wrong thing to the wrong investor ā for example, pitching your service business to me at 500 Startups shows me that you have done absolutely nothing to learn about what we do and what weāre interested in. Youāve made yourself look like a fool before you even started.
EARLY STAGE FINANCINGS ARE STARTING TO CHANGE
Now that weāve talked about startups and venture capital, itās important to understand how all of those changes are being reflected in the terms of early stage fundraises.
Financing terms are increasingly being standardized. Founders are getting more comfortable with things such as Series Seed and similar documents. It keeps legal fees low on both sides of the transaction and, more importantly, it allows the founders to get back to work sooner rather than later (which is especially important in the early days). I should mention, by the way, that Iām not suggesting that the terms are exactly the same for everyone ā only that the material terms within the documents are all in place and you can just tweak the numbers as needed.
Convertible notes are becoming the norm at the early stage. Thatās not to say that equity deals are bad, itās just that convertible notes (especially when theyāre capped) functionally provide the same thing as equity while allowing the founder to get back to work quickly. Legal fees tend to be lower on convertible notes (usually by an one or two orders of magnitude) which can be especially important when an investor might be writing a smaller initial check anyways.
Fundraising rounds are trending to continuous, rather than discrete, rounds. Rather than closing a specific amount of money on a certain date, founders raising on convertible notes are able to quickly close smaller chunks of money as soon as individual investors give the OK. Paul Graham wrote a fantastic piece explaining this, he calls it high resolution fundraising.
Also, prices are beginning to float. It used to be that everybody in that round would get the same price and the same terms. However, especially for the hottest deals, convertible notes also allow founders to tweak the terms a bit for individual investors that might have specific needs or that can provide a specific type of value-add that is important to the company.
As I mentioned earlier, weāre seeing fewer Board seats in early stage deals. Thatās not to say that investors shouldnāt provide governance but, rather, that Boards donāt provide much for the startup when theyāve raised less than $1M, are still looking for product-market fit and are testing customer acquisition channels. Smart investors are recognizing that implicit control is still there in early stage deals, even without the Board seat ā after all, outside investors in subsequent rounds will be looking to the existing investors to determine whether to invest.
Finally, and this one is probably the most controversial because we investors hate to admit it, the herd mentality is stronger than ever in early stage rounds today. Founders shouldnāt complain about this, they should seek to take advantage of it instead. What I mean to say is that founders should be strategic about how they approach the market when they begin to raise money for their company.
For example, letās say youāre raising $250,000. Iād suggest that you identify 5-6 investors on AngelList and then look for warm introductions to them one by one. Get them to invest and incrementally widen the circle to other investors ā use their names to excite other investors to join the round. The important point Iām trying to make here is that founders should use herd mentality to their advantage and recognize that platforms like AngelList can help you do that to a broader set of investors than ever.
As another aside for founders, if youāre not sure what to pitch about when youāre talking to an investor, you need to understand that there are only two things that make an investor write a check quickly:
- fear of missing out
- greed
Thatās it. Donāt tell me that you want to change the world, show me the traction. Iād like to change the world too, but I have a duty to make money for my investors. I would love for me and you to make a lot of money at the intersection of social good ā love it ā but letās focus on the greed first.
TACTICAL ADVICE FOR FOUNDERS: TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE TRANSPARENCY
If you asked me to roll everything up and just share the single most important change in the startup ecosystem, Iād tell you that itās transparency between founders and investors. On the one hand, it gives founders access to more investors. On the other hand, it also makes it harder for founders to raise money because investors can now know more than ever about your industry too. In other words, the increasing transparency between founders and investors raises the bar for everyone involved.
A couple of resources I recommend for anyone involved in early stage startups:
The fact of the matter is that thereās more information than ever available to you founders today. You should take advantage of it, use it all for your own good. You no longer have any excuses for bad pitches, lack of funding or anything else in between. The point here is that power is shifting to founders, especially the ones that take in all this information and use it to their advantage.
If you remember nothing else, I only have two tactical suggestions for you:
- Focus on traction.
- Learn to communicate and inspire.
The first one is something youāve probably heard but itās still the #1 issue I see with founders all over the world ā they either donāt have it or they donāt make it clear. The second one is something that isnāt suggested often enough: many founders actually do have something interesting but they bury that information behind fear, uncertainty or far too many words. Instead of spending your time worrying about your slides, practice your delivery. Traction combined with a great storyteller is a very, very powerful combination.
Thank you.